Profit Factor Calculator: Expectancy and Win Rate

Trading system statistics

Profit Factor Calculator

Calculate profit factor, trade expectancy, win rate, average reward-to-risk and projected profit from completed trades or average system statistics.

Formatting only; no currency conversion is performed.

Optional trades with exactly zero net profit or loss.

Use net trading results after commissions, fees, financing and slippage if you want the statistics to reflect those costs. Historical averages do not guarantee future performance.

Profit factor and expectancy formulas

Profit factor compares all gross trading profit with the absolute value of all gross trading loss. Expectancy converts win frequency and average outcomes into the average amount earned or lost per completed trade.

Profit factor = gross profit ÷ gross loss
Net profit = gross profit − gross loss
Average win = gross profit ÷ winning trades
Average loss = gross loss ÷ losing trades
Expectancy per closed trade = net profit ÷ all closed trades
Expectancy from averages = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss
Breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)

The completed-trades method includes zero-result trades in expectancy per closed trade but excludes them from the decisive win rate. In the averages method, the entered win rate and its complementary loss rate are assumed to cover every projected trade.

Verified examples

Profitable sample from completed trades

Gross profit of US$6,000 and gross loss of US$3,000 across 60 wins and 40 losses produce a profit factor of 2.00, net profit of US$3,000, a 60% win rate, average win of US$100, average loss of US$75 and expectancy of US$30 per trade. The reward-to-risk ratio is 1.333333 and the breakeven win rate is 42.857143%.

Losing sample with a breakeven trade

Gross profit of US$1,000 and gross loss of US$1,250 across four wins, five losses and one breakeven trade produce a profit factor of 0.80, net loss of US$250, decisive win rate of 44.444444%, average win and loss of US$250, and expectancy of −US$25 across all ten closed trades.

What-if analysis from averages

A 45% win rate, US$200 average win and US$100 average loss produce a profit factor of 1.636364, expectancy of US$35 per trade, a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio and a 33.333333% breakeven win rate. If those averages persist, 100 trades imply an expected result of US$3,500.

How to interpret the result

  • A profit factor above 1 means gross profit exceeded gross loss in the entered sample; below 1 means gross loss was larger.
  • A higher factor is not automatically safer. A few unusually large wins, small sample size or unrecorded costs can overstate performance.
  • Expectancy shows the average monetary outcome per trade, not the probability or size of the next result.
  • Reward-to-risk here uses average winning and losing trades; it is not the planned entry-to-stop ratio for one trade.

Limits and assumptions

  • Amounts must be nonnegative and support up to two decimal places. Trade counts must be whole numbers from 0 to 10,000,000; projections require 1 to 10,000,000 trades.
  • Completed totals must contain at least one winning or losing trade. Positive gross profit requires at least one win; positive gross loss requires at least one loss.
  • If there are no losses and gross profit is positive, profit factor is mathematically infinite. If both gross profit and gross loss are zero, it is undefined.
  • The projection assumes the same win rate and average outcomes continue independently; it does not model sequencing, drawdowns, changing position size or compounding.
  • The calculator does not infer omitted commissions, spread, slippage, taxes, borrow costs, funding costs, deposits or withdrawals.
  • Results evaluate the supplied sample or assumptions. They do not validate a strategy, account for survivorship bias or constitute trading or investment advice.
Risk note: A positive historical expectancy can coexist with severe drawdowns and future losses. Use a sufficiently large, accurately recorded sample and review risk separately.

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